Karachi, March 18, 2021: Pakistan local cement sales in Mar-2021 are expected to increase by 36-42 Percent YoY, taking 9MFY21 local sales growth to 16-20 Percent YoY. This is in line with our expectations, as we had also mentioned in our last month’s report that local cement sales are likely to grow by 40 Percent YoY in Mar-2021.
The growth is amplified because sales were lower during the last week of Mar-2020 due to country-wide lockdown amidst COVID-19 outbreak.
Local cement sales on a MoM basis are likely to increase by 10-16 Percent, which is in line with historical average growth of 12-15 Percent MoM during March.
Our analysis is based on actual 14 days sales numbers that shows local sales growth of 22 Percent YoY to 2 million tons, of which North region sales are growing at 24 Percent YoY and South region sales are growing at 15 Percent YoY.
Exports during the month are likely to increase 34-40 Percent YoY due to low base effect again because of COVID-19 related lockdowns across the world.
Total cement sales in Mar-2021 are expected at 5.0-5.4 million tons, up 36-42 Percent YoY.
Capacity utilization based on local demand is expected to touch 79 Percent, where in North the same is expected to touch 89 Percent during Mar-2021. Total capacity utilization (including exports) is expected to touch 92 Percent.
In another major development, retention prices in North have crossed that in the South region. Retention prices in North are hovering at Rs7000-7,200 per ton while in south retention prices are at around ~Rs6800 per ton.
Cement retail prices during Mar-2021 TD have averaged at Rs604/bag in North, broadly unchanged from Feb 2021. In South, retail prices remained unchanged in the range of Rs615-620/bag
