Year 2023 CPI to remain in high teens

Karachi, July 05, 2022: The Rs 7.5/unit increase in Power tariff, gradual increase in PDL and GST and MoM increase of 0.7% will lead to CPI averaging over 18.8% in the Financial Year 2023.

The CPI base is high enough for it to average at 15% even in the best-case scenario where one does not incorporate any increase in POL product price or other one-time energy cost hike from here onwards and only takes a 0.5% MoM uptick for the whole of FY23.

Jun-2022 CPI touches 13-year high at 21.3%

The CPI for June 2022 surpassed street estimates (17.8%) to clock in at 21.3% YoY, touching the highest level since December 2008 (23.34%).

This brought FY22 to end with CPI averaging at 12.1%. With a MoM increase of 6.3%, the key reasons of the high inflation reading were: Rs100/ltr increase in POL product prices; and ongoing sticky food inflation.

Perishable food items led inflation in the Food basket. Food inflation clocked in at 24%/27% for Urban/Rural regions, respectively, averaging at 13% for FY22.

The Urban Non-Food Non-Energy (NFNE) inflation reading for the month entered double-digit zone, clocking in at 11.5%, while Rural NFNE reported double-digit inflation for the fourth consecutive month, at 13.6%.

The wholesale price index (WPI), the indicator measuring price trends of goods before sold at retail, has crossed the high marked during the global financial crisis, reaching to 38.94% in June 2022.

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