Islamabad, March 5, 2021: In the aftermath of the Senate elections (upper house), the Prime Minister has opted to seek a Vote of Confidence from the parliament on Saturday (Mar 6, 2021).
In the Senate elections held on Mar 3, 2021, the PTI-led ruling alliance lost a key seat of Abdul Hafez Sheikh from Islamabad, where all members of National Assembly (lower house) had voted.
Topline in its report on the vote of confidence has said a full National Assembly constitutes of 342 members, however one seat is vacant due to re-election on NA-75 (Sialkot).
The Prime Minister will need the support of 172 members to win the Vote of Confidence, which will be an ‘open show of hands’ unlike ‘secret balloting’ in the Senate elections.
PTI holds 157 seats in the National Assembly, while its allies have 21 seats – taking their total strength to 178. Given the strength, we expect the Prime Minister to win the Vote of Confidence on Saturday. The opposition strategy is not clear as yet and few reports suggest they may boycott the vote.
The quorum is also likely to be met, even if the opposition boycotts, as the minimum number of members of the house necessary to conduct business is 25% (i.e. 85 members).
In an unlikely scenario, if the Prime Minister is not able to receive the required votes, he will cease to exist as the Prime Minister. The President of Pakistan will dissolve the National Assembly, if no one else (from the ruling alliance or opposition) can command a majority.
Analysts expect political noise to remain high even if the Prime Minister wins the Vote of Confidence, where the government may also find it hard to implement unpopular measures of the IMF program.
The election for Chairman and Deputy Chairman Senate are also scheduled for Mar 12, 2021, where again a close contest is expected. The government and allies have 47 seats and the opposition has 53 seats in the house of 100 members (voting is through a secret ballot).
The Prime Minister has once again nominated the serving Senate chairman Mr. Sadiq Sajarani for Senate Chairmanship, while the opposition is likely to put forward the name of Mr. Yousuf Raza Gillani (former Prime Minister and former Speaker of the National Assembly) – who won the key senate election from Islamabad against the Finance Minister Dr. Abdul Hafeez Shaikh.
Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) had already announced that it intends to start a long march against the government on March 26, 2021 to reach the capital city of Islamabad – which will further fuel political pressure.
There will also be a pressing matter of finding a solution for Dr. Abdul Hafeez Shaikh as he will cease to exist as the Finance Minister on Jun 11, 2021.
This could have implications on Pakistan negotiations with the IMF as it is largely believed that Dr. Abdul Hafeez Shaikh enjoys a strong relationship with the fund. The Executive Board of IMF is expected to meet soon to approve the release of the US$500mn tranche.
The IMF staff had recently reached an agreement on a package of measures to complete second to fifth reviews of the authorities’ reform program supported by the IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF) – after a gap of over a year.
Recall that Dr. Abdul Hafeez Shaikh (had not been associated with PTI) was brought in place of Mr. Asad Umer just before Pakistan signed on the IMF program in July-2019. He was also the Finance Minister when Pakistan entered the IMF program back in 2008.
