KARACHI, October 27 2024: Climate change presents a critical threat to Pakistan’s economy, particularly due to its heavy reliance on agriculture, which employs around 42% of the labour force and contributes nearly 19% to the country’s GDP. With rising temperatures and increasingly erratic weather patterns, Pakistan faces substantial challenges in sustaining its economic growth.
The country, ranked as the 8th most vulnerable to climate change by the Global Climate Risk Index 2021, is already experiencing climate-induced disruptions that are exacerbating poverty and threatening food security.
Pakistan’s agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to climate change. Agriculture contributes about one-fifth of Pakistan’s GDP and supports 60-70% of the population for their livelihoods. However, climate variability, including rising temperatures, irregular rainfall, and extreme weather events like floods and droughts, has significantly reduced agricultural productivity.
The 2022 floods alone resulted in economic damages exceeding $30 billion, wiping out key crops like cotton, rice, and wheat, which are vital for both domestic consumption and export, according to the World Bank. The damage to agriculture has a cascading impact across other economic sectors, such as industry and commerce.
Pakistan’s textile industry, which relies on agricultural raw materials like cotton, has seen reduced productivity, leading to a decrease in exports and further widening the trade deficit, reports The News. A World Bank study projected that the GDP could contract by as much as 2.2% following extreme weather events, and multidimensional poverty could rise by 5.9 percentage points, pushing an additional 1.9 million households into poverty.
Pakistan has been forced to rely on costly food imports, straining foreign reserves and further burdening the economy. In 2023, food inflation surged to 30%, driven by supply disruptions caused by climate change-induced agricultural losses, as reported by The Express Tribune.
The economic vulnerabilities posed by climate change highlight the need for urgent financial reforms and investments in sustainable development. Expanding financial lending by even 1% has been shown to increase GDP growth by 0.5%, underscoring the importance of enhancing financial access and support for climate adaptation projects, according to Frontiers in Environmental Science.
In response to the growing climate crisis, Pakistan’s government has introduced several initiatives, such as the National Climate Change Policy (NCCP) and the Ten Billion Tree Tsunami Program. These programs aim to restore ecosystems, reduce carbon emissions, and promote sustainable agricultural practices.
However, the implementation of these policies faces significant obstacles, such as a lack of financial resources and poor coordination among stakeholders, reports LEAP UNEP. Furthermore, international climate financing remains insufficient, with Pakistan receiving only a fraction of the estimated $100 billion pledged annually to developing countries under the Paris Agreement.
Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have stepped in to fill the gap left by government limitations, playing a crucial role in combating the effects of climate change in Pakistan. NGOs such as the Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund (PPAF), WWF-Pakistan, and the Rural Support Programmes Network (RSPN) have mobilized communities and provided essential services to mitigate climate risks. They focus on grassroots initiatives, including sustainable agriculture, water conservation, and renewable energy projects, all aimed at building local resilience.
For example, the PPAF has implemented climate-resilient infrastructure projects in flood-prone areas, benefiting over 1.5 million people. Similarly, WWF-Pakistan’s Climate Resilient Agriculture Program trains farmers in sustainable farming practices, helping them adapt to unpredictable weather conditions. NGOs also serve as advocates for marginalized communities, particularly women and rural populations, who are disproportionately affected by climate-induced disasters, as noted by the World Bank.
NGOs emphasize collective action and community-driven initiatives as essential components of building climate resilience. Local communities are often the first responders to climate disasters, and their involvement in decision-making is crucial for effective adaptation strategies. In regions like Sindh and Balochistan, NGOs have worked closely with farmers and fishermen to implement ecosystem-based adaptation, including mangrove reforestation and sustainable water management systems, according to FAO.
A key challenge in building resilience is securing adequate funding for large-scale projects. While international donors pledged $11 billion to Pakistan’s recovery after the 2022 floods, more than 70% of that funding has yet to be disbursed, and the rebuilding needs are estimated at over $16 billion, states UNDP. Addressing these gaps requires stronger coordination between the government, NGOs, and the private sector to streamline funding and ensure timely responses to climate emergencies.
The economic impact of climate change on Pakistan is part of a broader global challenge, particularly for developing nations. The financial gap for climate adaptation is significant; a study by the United Nations estimates that developing countries will require $140-300 billion per year by 2030 to adequately adapt to climate change, according to the World Resources Institute.
For Pakistan, climate-induced displacement is another growing concern. By 2050, an estimated 36 million people in South Asia could become climate migrants, further straining national resources, reports The Diplomat.
In conclusion, while the government has made strides in addressing climate change, the role of NGOs is critical in mobilizing resources, advocating for vulnerable communities, and promoting sustainable adaptation measures.
A coordinated and well-financed approach that includes government, civil society, and international support is essential to mitigate the economic and social impacts of climate change in Pakistan. Without immediate action, the country risks falling into a cycle of economic instability and increasing poverty, driven by the ongoing climate crisis.
This article was contributed by the Author Muhammad Rizwan Hussain, a PhD scholar at the University of Debrecen and recipient of the Stipendium Hungaricum Scholarship, who also serves as an Ambassador for Doctoral Students in Hungary.
He can be contacted at [email protected]
