Pakistan Urea Sales Expected to Grow 39% Year-on-Year to 487,000 Tons in October 2026

Pakistan’s urea sales are expected to reach 487,000 tons in October 2026, reflecting a 39% increase compared with the same month last year. However, sales are projected to decline 20% month-on-month from September, according to a research report dated November 2.

The monthly decline is mainly attributed to seasonal factors and the absence of advance dealer buying during October, based on market channel checks. Fertiliser manufacturers are also currently not offering discounts.

Despite the monthly slowdown, cumulative urea sales from January to October 2026 are estimated at 4.9 million tons, representing a 7% increase compared with the same period last year.

Meanwhile, total industry urea inventory is expected to reach 724,000 tons by the end of October, up from 650,000 tons in September.

Among major manufacturers, Engro Fertilisers (EFERT) is projected to hold the largest inventory at 571,000 tons, followed by Fauji Fertiliser Company (FFC) at 87,000 tons and Fatima Group at 57,000 tons.

Company-Wise Urea Sales Performance

FFC is expected to record the highest urea sales among the three major manufacturers in October, with estimated sales of 257,000 tons, up 55% year-on-year.

Fatima Group’s sales are projected at 56,000 tons, reflecting 30% growth, while EFERT is expected to sell 138,000 tons, marking a 13% increase.

Despite the annual growth, all three companies are expected to report lower sales compared with September.

For the first 10 months of 2026, FFC’s cumulative urea sales are estimated at 2.4 million tons, representing 14% year-on-year growth. Fatima Group is projected to record sales of 839,000 tons, up 11%.

In contrast, EFERT’s cumulative urea sales are expected to decline 1% to 1.4 million tons during the same period.

DAP Sales Recover Month-on-Month

Pakistan’s total DAP sales are estimated at 166,000 tons in October 2026. Although this represents a 24% decline year-on-year, sales are projected to increase approximately 2.5 times compared with September.

Despite the monthly recovery, cumulative DAP sales for January to October 2026 are expected to reach 937,000 tons, down 8% from the corresponding period last year.

At the company level, FFC’s October DAP sales are projected at 94,000 tons, reflecting a 14% year-on-year decline.

In contrast, EFERT’s DAP sales are expected to increase approximately 2.2 times year-on-year to 43,000 tons.

For the first 10 months of 2026, FFC’s cumulative DAP sales are estimated at 618,000 tons, while EFERT’s sales are projected at 138,000 tons.

Closing DAP inventory is expected to stand at approximately 263,000 tons by the end of October.

Urea Demand Outlook Remains Positive

The research report expects urea demand to remain strong in the coming months, supported by peak-season requirements and increased agricultural activity.

The projected 7% growth in cumulative urea sales during the first 10 months of 2026 points to resilient market demand, even in the absence of discounts from fertiliser manufacturers.

Overall, seasonal agricultural needs are expected to continue supporting urea sales. However, monthly volumes may fluctuate depending on dealer purchasing patterns, seasonal conditions and broader market dynamics.