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KARACHI, May 12, 2026: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Pakistan’s macroeconomic outlook following the approval of the third review, lowering the country’s projected GDP growth for FY27 to 3.5% from its earlier estimate of 4.1%. The updated projections also indicate higher inflation expectations, reduced foreign exchange reserve targets, and a wider current account deficit, reflecting growing economic pressures and external risks.
According to the IMF’s latest assessment released on May 11, 2026, Pakistan’s economic outlook has weakened amid rising global oil prices and persistent external sector challenges. Despite the downward revision in growth projections, the government has reiterated its commitment to fiscal discipline and plans to maintain a primary surplus target of 2% of GDP under the ongoing reform programme.
The revised estimates align with the recent assessment issued by Topline Securities, which had highlighted the potential impact of increasing oil prices on Pakistan’s economy and stock market. The report projected slower economic growth, higher inflationary pressures, and a widening current account deficit, while also expecting the government to continue its tight fiscal policy stance to meet IMF programme conditions.
